{"id":10865,"date":"2025-11-10T08:24:04","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T11:24:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enorsai.com\/noticias\/?p=10865"},"modified":"2025-11-10T16:38:33","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T19:38:33","slug":"milei-al-borde-precipicio-no-devaluar-reservas-alvarez-agis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enorsai.com\/noticias\/economia\/milei-al-borde-precipicio-no-devaluar-reservas-alvarez-agis\/","title":{"rendered":"Al Borde del Precipicio: Milei se obstina en no devaluar y agrava la falta de reservas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Emmanuel \u00c1lvarez Agis denuncia el \u00aberror no forzado\u00bb del Presidente al comprometerse a sostener el d\u00f3lar barato, una decisi\u00f3n que condena al pa\u00eds a la recesi\u00f3n y al vaciamiento del Banco Central.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Por: Redacci\u00f3n En Orsai | 8 de Noviembre de 2025 https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/sUQa5et59yM Video: Emmanuel \u00c1lvarez Agis, exviceministro de Econom\u00eda, critica la obstinaci\u00f3n de Javier Milei en su esquema cambiario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A pesar de la euforia electoral, la econom\u00eda argentina sigue operando con un \u00abbanco central vac\u00edo\u00bb (**[00:12:10]**) y un esquema cambiario que el propio Emmanuel \u00c1lvarez Agis califica de **\u00bbhorripilante\u00bb** (**[00:18:25]**). El economista advierte que la obstinaci\u00f3n de Javier Milei en no devaluar y no comprar reservas es un **\u00bberror no forzado\u00bb** (**[00:22:38]**) que garantiza la recesi\u00f3n y la inestabilidad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los peligros y las dudas de la ayuda de Trump a Milei, seg\u00fan \u00c1lvarez Agis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

La Contradicci\u00f3n: D\u00f3lar Barato y BCRA Vac\u00edo<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Milei anunci\u00f3 que mantendr\u00e1 el esquema de bandas cambiarias hasta 202*x*, lo que se interpreta como un compromiso de **\u00bbno voy a devaluar nunca\u00bb** (**[00:00:47]**). Sin embargo, esta promesa es incompatible con la necesidad de acumular reservas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La demanda de d\u00f3lares no es un \u00abriesgo cuca\u00bb pol\u00edtico, sino un problema estructural: los argentinos llegaron a comprar 6.500 millones de d\u00f3lares en un mes (**[00:04:00]**), un monto que equivale al super\u00e1vit de Vaca Muerta de todo un a\u00f1o (**[00:04:13]**). El mercado ya dio su veredicto: **el tipo de cambio est\u00e1 desalineado y \u00abbarato\u00bb** (**[00:05:19]**). Si la demanda se mantiene, el BCRA no podr\u00e1 comprar reservas, manteniendo a la econom\u00eda **\u00bbal borde del precipicio\u00bb** (**[00:06:47]**).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Argentina tiene 120.000 millones de d\u00f3lares de deuda en el mercado y solo 4.000 millones de reservas, lo que se traduce en un **BCRA vac\u00edo** (**[00:11:57], [00:12:10]**), a diferencia de pa\u00edses como Per\u00fa, que tienen reservas que duplican su deuda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consecuencias: Recesi\u00f3n Sin Empleo<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sostener el d\u00f3lar en los niveles actuales beneficia solo a dos sectores que no necesitan el tipo de cambio para competir: los **recursos naturales** y los **servicios** (**[00:12:24]**). El gran costo de este esquema es la falta de creaci\u00f3n de empleo en la industria, lo que condena a la segunda mitad del mandato de Milei a una fuerte recesi\u00f3n (**[00:13:45]**).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c1lvarez Agis sugiere que el momento adecuado para corregir el tipo de cambio era inmediatamente despu\u00e9s de la elecci\u00f3n, aprovechando el envi\u00f3n pol\u00edtico (**[00:18:10]**). La negativa a hacerlo es un ejemplo de c\u00f3mo Milei **\u00bbsuele dar la vida por tener raz\u00f3n\u00bb** (**[00:08:49]**), incluso a costa del programa econ\u00f3mico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cLa pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica normal es super\u00e1vit fiscal y acumulaci\u00f3n de reservas. Milei tiene la mitad y la otra mitad no. Es un punto muy importante y est\u00e1 como un perro con un hueso obstinado a no hacerlo.\u201d (**[00:16:15]**)<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

La Agenda Progresista: Impuesto al Efectivo y Obra P\u00fablica<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

El economista critic\u00f3 el vac\u00edo de propuestas concretas en la oposici\u00f3n, proponiendo una agenda que no repita los errores del pasado:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Reforma Fiscal Progresiva:<\/strong> Mantener el super\u00e1vit fiscal pero con una composici\u00f3n distinta, reponiendo el **Impuesto a las Ganancias** a las personas (**[00:39:21]**) y recuperando el **Impuesto a los Bienes Personales** (**[00:40:22]**).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Obra P\u00fablica:<\/strong> Eliminar dos tercios de los \u00abgastos tributarios\u00bb (esquemas de incentivos sin sentido) para **recuperar un punto del PBI de Obra P\u00fablica** (**[00:40:45]**), un gasto clave para el desarrollo y el empleo.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Combate a la Informalidad:<\/strong> Propone un sistema de **palo y zanahoria** (**[00:27:55]**):\n
      \n
    • **Palo:** Aplicar un **impuesto al efectivo** para que el consumidor exija medios de pago digitales y fuerce a los comercios a blanquearse (**[00:28:06]**).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • **Zanahoria:** Crear un **monotributo empresarial** con impuestos sencillos y bajos para que la formalizaci\u00f3n sea rentable (**[00:29:22]**).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      Finalmente, respecto a la deuda con el FMI, \u00c1lvarez Agis sostiene que las \u00abpol\u00edticas tipo estudiantina\u00bb de no pago son un suicidio que elevar\u00eda la pobreza al 70%. La \u00fanica forma de negociar con Estados Unidos es **acumular reservas** para tener un \u00absalvavidas propio\u00bb y no depender de un \u00abrescatista inestable\u00bb como Donald Trump (**[00:37:04], [00:15:44]**).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      El problema de la Argentina es la combinaci\u00f3n de inestabilidad pol\u00edtica con un Banco Central vac\u00edo. Milei ten\u00eda la oportunidad de corregirlo y eligi\u00f3 el camino de la obstinaci\u00f3n ideol\u00f3gica, garantizando una crisis que impactar\u00e1 de lleno en el empleo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Temas relacionados:<\/strong> Javier Milei, Emmanuel \u00c1lvarez Agis, D\u00f3lar, Devaluaci\u00f3n, Reservas BCRA, Recesi\u00f3n, Empleo, Impuesto al efectivo, Reforma Laboral.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Emmanuel \u00c1lvarez Agis denuncia el \u00aberror no forzado\u00bb del Presidente al comprometerse a sostener el d\u00f3lar barato, una decisi\u00f3n que condena al pa\u00eds a la recesi\u00f3n y al vaciamiento del Banco Central. Por: Redacci\u00f3n En Orsai | 8 de Noviembre de 2025 https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/sUQa5et59yM Video: Emmanuel \u00c1lvarez Agis, exviceministro de Econom\u00eda, critica la obstinaci\u00f3n de Javier…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":10867,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[4064,147,4066,4062,2598,4063,4060,4061,4065,4059],"class_list":["post-10865","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","tag-bcra-vacio","tag-devaluacion","tag-dolar-milei","tag-economia-al-borde-del-precipicio","tag-emmanuel-alvarez-agis","tag-impuesto-al-efectivo","tag-recesion-y-empleo","tag-reforma-laboral-progresista","tag-reservas-bcra","tag-riesgo-pais-argentina"],"yoast_head":"\nAl Borde del Precipicio: Milei se obstina en no devaluar y agrava la falta de reservas -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.enorsai.com\/noticias\/economia\/milei-al-borde-precipicio-no-devaluar-reservas-alvarez-agis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Al Borde del Precipicio: Milei se obstina en no devaluar y agrava la falta de reservas -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Emmanuel \u00c1lvarez Agis denuncia el \u00aberror no forzado\u00bb del Presidente al comprometerse a sostener el d\u00f3lar barato, una decisi\u00f3n que condena al pa\u00eds a la recesi\u00f3n y al vaciamiento del Banco Central. 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